基于航空器自主运行的空中交通复杂性建模

针对航空器自主运行模式的空中交通运行态势评估问题，本文重构了基于分布式空中交通管理系统的空中交通复杂性评价方法，并仿真验证了该方法在航空器冲突探测和自主航迹规划中的应用。首先，基于自由航路空域和航空器自主运行模式定义了空中交通复杂性，在通过三维空域栅格模型量化航空器时空位置的基础上，构建复杂度计算模型以反映航空器位置、航向、 航速对空域各栅格的实时复杂性影响；其次，基于实际管制扇区(ZSSSAR01)及高度层，分别模拟自由航路与固定航路运行模式，对比两者空中交通复杂度时空分布差异；并结合自由航路运行模式，在空中交通复杂性与航空器冲突指标(冲突率、冲突比例)相关性分析的基础上，研究空域复杂度阈值确定方法；最后，初步探究基于空域复杂度阈值进行航空器自主航迹调整的方法，评估其运行效果。仿真实验结果表明：自由航路运行模式相对固定航路运行模式可显著降低空域最大复杂度值(平均降幅119%)；模型计算得到，空中交通复杂度与空域中航空器冲突指标有强相关性 (相关系数大于0.90)；基于复杂度和复杂度阈值的航迹调整策略具备一定可行性。     

A maritime safety on-board decision support system to enhance emergency evacuation on ferryboats

Planning emergency evacuation operations in a proactive manner in public marine transportation systems is a critical success factor for passenger and crew safety. Despite the fact that there is a growing attention on safety issues for marine transportation systems, providing a real-time decision support for evacuation planning under different emergency conditions has not yet been addressed. In this context, this paper contributes to the related literature by providing a comprehensive methodology including simulation and statistical analysis along with a three-module decision support system (DSS) for ferryboat emergency evacuation. Emergency evacuation and fire environment are simulated via Maritime EXODUS V5.1 and SMARTFIRE V4.3, respectively. The methodology is applied to a real-life Ro-Ro ferry, and the results not only revealed significant factors on emergency evacuation performance, but also demonstrated the validity of the developed decision support system.     

轿车衣帽架钣金处声学包的优化设计

目前,汽车的NVH性能受到越来越多消费者的关注,而电动汽车的蓬勃发展也为NVH性能设计带来了新的挑战,尤其是高频噪声带来的挑战。因此,应对高频噪声的声学包的优化设计便尤为重要。文章通过对某三厢电动车进行路试评价,得到后排乘客抱怨来自衣帽架处的高频噪声的结论,进而进行了密封测试,传递函数测试以及对噪声路径进行分析优化设计。结果表明,若要降低来自衣帽架处的高频噪声,首先要密封住车内噪声传递路径上多余的孔洞,其次要减小必要的总开孔面积。最后在布置空调通风孔位置时,提出优化设计噪声路径,使噪声在吸音棉上的有效路径最长来达到优化声学包的目的。     

基于FDS公路隧道火灾仿真研究

针对公路隧道突发火灾事故问题,采用模拟软件对隧道发生的火灾进行研究。分析火灾条件下公路隧道内被困人群的疏散行为特点,给出隧道内人员疏散的安全依据,按照隧道火灾条件下通风风速不同时火灾烟气蔓延情况,确定火灾可利用疏散时间(ASET),通过分析人员疏散特点计算出所需的疏散时间(RSET),通过对比得出:通风风速至少为3m/s时才能保证人员的安全疏散。     

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飞机多机种出动架次率是衡量飞机作战效能的重要指标,本文对空军场站军用飞机多机种（型）出动架次率进行了研究。通过对飞机出动回收过程的描述,基于排队理论建立多服务器多服务率的飞机多机种（型）出动回收网络模型,并采用扩展后的平均值分析对飞机出动能力进行了求解。通过解析计算,给出飞机多机种（型）出动架次率曲线,分析架次率与飞机数量之间的关系,并结合平均队长、利用率等系统性能指标,识别出制约飞机多机种（型）出动架次率提高的因素。最后通过蒙特卡洛仿真对构建的回收网络模型的计算结果进行验证。验证结果表明,飞机多机种（型）出动网络模型及其算法适合应用于实践中,并且有助于对空军场站飞机多机种（型）出动能力的研究。     

Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew

This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.     

无人水上巡检设备在航标管理中的应用

文中介绍了航标管理的现状、无人水上巡检设备的特点,提出了无人水上巡检设备在航标管理中的应用和优点;阐述了无人水上巡检设备作为一种先进的技术,将对航标巡检、应急反应、节能减排等工作有很大的帮助。     

Effects of shadow evacuation on megaregion evacuations

Transportation systems serve important roles during emergencies, in particular for evacuations. However, efficient travel during these life-and-death scenarios can be adversely impacted by external conditions, such as unnecessary and unneeded travel. This research sought to enhance the understanding of the effects of these conditions by analyzing shadow evacuations, and their impact on regional traffic operations in megaregions, more broadly. The research was based on simulations of a range of hurricane evacuation threat scenarios in the Gulf of Mexico building upon prior study using TRANSIMS. These assessments are also targeted at what many assume could be worst case evacuation conditions and pushing the limits of current simulation modeling capability. Among the broader findings of this work was that shadow evacuation participation rates did not significantly impact the evacuation clearance times within mandatory evacuation areas of the megaregion as long as demand could be temporarily spread out. This finding does not, however, suggest that the shadow evacuations have no impact on evacuation processes. High rates of shadow evacuees can cause significant congestion if they are not able to exit critical routes before mandatory evacuees reach areas further away from the coast.     

航母飞行作业空间安全布局研究

研究针对航空母舰飞行作业空间安全问题而开展。研究首先根据作业特点划分航母作业区域，针对飞行作业分析构成空间危害因素的来源，提出一套度量危险因素的空间关联安全水平指标，以便对危险因素的空间关系进行量化；然后在此基础上，对2套不同起飞作业布局进行安全评价；最后，并围绕航母飞行甲板作业空间安全的典型问题进行分析和讨论。